October US non-farm payrolls report highlights

  • Prior was +134K (revised to 118K)

  • Private payrolls 246K vs 195K expected
  • Unemployment rate 3.7% vs 3.7% expected
  • Prior unemployment rate 3.7%
  • Participation rate 62.9% vs 62.7% prior
  • Two month net revision +0K
  • Birth-death-adj +246K

Wages data:

  • Average hourly earnings +0.2% vs +0.3% m/m expected
  • Prior average hourly earnings +0.3% (revised to +0.3%)
  • Average hourly earnings 3.1% vs +3.1% y/y expected
  • Prior y/y avg hourly earnings 2.8%
  • Average weekly hours 34.5 vs 34.5 expected

That rise in labor force participation is more evidence that workers are being pulled back into the fray. That's great news overall for the US economy because it shows more capacity without causing inflation. It's a theory the Fed's Kashkari has been pushing hard.

Another spot to highlight is that virtually all the beat against the forecast was in private jobs, which is a minor bit of good news.

On wages, the m/m rise in hourly earnings was a small disappointment but the y/y number met expectations. We'll dig into the data further.

The BLS said hurricanes had no discernible effect on October jobs report.