US retail sales data for April is due Wednesday 15 May - preview

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

Plenty of data due from the US today, coming up at 1230GMT is:

Empire Manufacturing for May
  • expected 8.0, prior 10.1
Retail sales for April
  • Advance expected 0.2% m/m, prior 1.6%
  • excl autos expected 0.7% m/m, prior 1.2%
  • excl autos and gas  expected 0.3% m/m, prior 0.9%

  • retail sales growth should moderate after a very strong March
  • Auto sales declined in April relative to March, which may weigh on the headline reported number
  • at least the headline could be somewhat of a setback
  • The volume of vehicle sales fell -6.3% m/m in April. Vehicle prices were soft as new vehicle prices were up by only 0.1% m/m but used vehicle prices fell by 1.3%. Vehicles carry a 20% weight and so this will be a significant drag on total retail sales.
  • Gas prices were up 10.3% m/m with an 8.4% weight and so this should offset some of the vehicles effect assuming the volume of gasoline purchases is little changed. 
  • Also recall that core sales ex-autos and gas were quite strong in March and so there might be moderation in April. What may well offset this moderation argument is momentum driven by solid jobs and pent-up demand. 
  • +0.1% for headline sales and 0.5% for sales ex-autos
A little later in the US morning will be industrial production data, April.

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