US retail sales data for May due Friday - preview

A look at the data due from the US today

ASB:

• The small lift in retail petrol prices suggests total US retail sales rebounded by 0.5% in May from the small dip in April.
• The core "control group" measure of retail sales should lift solidly in May by 0.4% after the flat result in April

Scotia:

• Cooler wage growth, soft job growth and soft hours worked should combine to translate into weak income gains for the month of May. In addition to potentially denting confidence, that might come to bear upon retail sales.
• The catch is that we might not see it as clearly in headline retail sales that should benefit from a 5½% m/m jump in auto sales last month to an estimated 17.3 million vehicles sold at an annualized rate.
• Gas prices, however, may hold back headline sales somewhat.
• The key will be to focus upon core retail sales after stripping out autos and gasoline and whether they rebound from the prior month's weakness that itself followed a strong month of March.