By Kevin Kastner
WASHINGTON, November 24 (MNI) – The level of initial jobless claims
fell sharply in the November 20 week, as seasonal adjustment factors
expected a larger unadjusted increase in the post-holiday week. The
Labor Department noted that claims have returned to their slight
downward trend after leveling out in recent months.
The Michigan Sentiment index was revised up to 71.6 in November,
with both the current conditions and expectations readings adjusted
higher.
The value of durables goods new orders fell more than expected in
October. While a reversal in transportation orders was expected given
the huge September increase, declines in other major category were a
surprise given other October manufacturing data that pointed to a modest
improvement. The business activity data released so far in November have
been mixed, with the Philadelphia Fed index pointing to solid expansion,
in contrast to the contraction suggested by the Empire State index.
Other regional data will be released in the coming weeks.
The pace of both new and existing home sales slowed in October,
while the supply for sale down for all homes. Housing starts fell for a
second straight month in October, with other home construction data also
pointing to sluggish home building.
Personal income rose solidly in October, as did PCE, suggesting
that fourth-quarter GDP will benefit from consumption strength. At the
same time, the core PCE price index was again flat and the year/year
change slowed even further, suggesting that deflation is still an issue.
Third quarter GDP was revised up on stronger consumption and
government spending, as well as a smaller net export gap. Nonresidential
fixed investment growth was stronger, while the large drop in
residential investment was slightly smaller than previous estimate.
Inventory growth was revised lower, while the inflation measures were
largely unrevised from the advance estimate.
—
New Home Sales for October (annual rate)
Wednesday, November 24 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Oct10 Sep10 Aug10
New Homes 310k 300k to 335k 20 283k 308k 275k
Comments: October new home sales fell 8.1% to a 283,000 SAAR, well
below the 310,000 rate expected and following mixed revisions to the
previous two months. Sales were down sharply in the Northeast, Midwest,
and West regions, but up 3.1% in the large South region. The supply of
new homes for sale fell 0.5% to 202,000, the lowest since June 1968. As
a result of the large sales drop, however, the months supply rebounded
to 8.6 months at the current sales pace from 7.9 months in September.
The median sales price fell 13.9% to $194,900 in October, the lowest
since October 2003.
—
Reuters/University of Michigan Survey for November (final)
Wednesday, November 24 at 9:55 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Nov10f Nov10p Oct10
Consumer Sent 69.5 69.0 to 71.0 16 71.6 69.3 67.7
Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index was revised up to a reading
of 71.6 in November from the 69.3 preliminary reading. There were sharp
upward revision to both the current conditions and expectations
readings. The index remained above the 67.7 reading for October.
—
Durable Goods Orders for October (percent change)
Wednesday, November 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Oct10 Sep10 Aug10
New Orders -0.1% -2.7% to +3.0% 20 -3.3% +5.0% -0.8%
Comments: Durable goods orders fell 3.3% in October, with an
expected pullback in transportation orders supplemented by declines in
every major new orders category. Still, the October decline did not
quite erase the entire September gain. Durables shipments fell 0.9% in
October, with declines in nondefense capital goods both including and
excluding aircraft orders. Both unfilled orders and inventories were up
in the month.
—
Personal Income for October (percent change)
Wednesday, November 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Oct10 Sep10 Aug10
Income +0.4% +0.1% to +0.5% 20 +0.5% Flat +0.5%
Spending +0.5% +0.1% to +0.8% 20 +0.4% +0.3% +0.5%
PCE Price Inx — — — +0.2% +0.1% +0.2%
–Core — — — Flat Flat +0.1%
Comments: Personal income rose 0.5% in October, led by gains in a
number of categories, including wages and salaries. PCE rose 0.4% before
adjustment for inflation, with durables consumption lifted by motor
vehicle sales and nondurables and services spending posting smaller
gain. Chained PCE rose 0.3%, as the overall PCE price index rose 0.2%.
The core price index was flat for the second straight month, allowing
the year/year rate to slip to a very modest 0.9% rise.
—
Weekly Jobless Claims for week of November 20
Wednesday, November 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses 20-Nov 13-Nov 06-Nov
Jobless claims 435k 420k to 445k 15 407k 441k 437k
Comments: Initial jobless claims fell 34,000 to 407,000 in the
November 20 week, a much larger decline than expected to the lowest
level since the July 19, 2008 week. Seasonal factors expected a larger
unadjusted increase in claims in the week after the Veteran’s Day
holiday week. Continuing claims fell 142,000 to 4.182 million in the
November 13 employment survey and holiday week, the lowest level since
the November 22, 2008 week and down 205,000 from the October 16
employment survey week.
—
Existing-home Sales for October (annual rate)
Tuesday, November 23 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Oct10 Sep10 Aug10
Home Resales 4.49m 4.25m to 4.70m 19 4.43m 4.53m 4.12m
Comments: The pace of existing home sales fell 2.2% to a 4.43
million annual rate in October. Sales were down in October for both
single-family homes and condos, and were down across all four regions.
Supply on homes fell 3.4% to 3.864 million, a 10.5 month supply at the
current sales rate, down slightly from 10.6 in September, but still up
sharply from 7.2 a year ago. The median sales price fell 0.6% to
$170,500 in October, down 0.9% from year ago.
—
GDP for Third Quarter, second (annual rate %, chain-weighted)
Tuesday, November 23 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses 3Q10s 3Q10a 2Q10
GDP +2.4% +2.1% to +2.7% 19 +2.5% +2.0% +1.7%
Chain Prices +2.3% +2.2% to +2.7% 14 +2.3% +2.3% +1.9%
PCE Price Inx — — — +1.0% +1.0% Flat
–Core — — — +0.8% +0.8% +1.0%
Comments: Third quarter GDP was revised up to a 2.5% rate of growth
on stronger growth in PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, and
government spending, as well as a smaller decline in residential fixed
investment and a narrower net export gap. Inventories growth was
slightly smaller than in the advance estimate. All of the main inflation
indicators, including the chain price index, were unrevised in the
current estimate.
—
Phila. Federal Reserve Index for November (diffusion index)
Thursday, November 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Nov10 Oct10 Sep10
Phila Fed 5.6 2.0 to 12.0 15 22.5 1.0 -0.7
Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index surged to a reading of 22.5 in
November, with all of the data components improved from their October
levels. The inventories and prices received measures still indicate
contraction.
—
Leading Indicators for October (percent change)
Thursday, November 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Oct10 Sep10 Aug10
Leading Index +0.6% +0.2% to +0.8% 15 +0.5% +0.5% +0.1%
Comments: The index of leading indicators rose 0.5% in October on
positive contributions from the rate spread and higher stock prices and
money supply. The only negative contributions were from faster vendor
deliveries and an expected decline in nondefense capital goods new
orders. The Conference Board said that the data suggest that holiday
sales will be modest, with a mild economic pickup in the spring.
** Market News International Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$]
