–Control of Senate Appears To Hinge On Nine Key Races
–Democratic Bid To Retain Control of Senate Appears To Strengthen
–Respected Polster Sees 79% Chance Dems Will Retain Senate

By John Shaw

WASHINGTON (MNI) – For much of this year, the likelihood that
Senate Democrats would retain their narrow majority in the upper chamber
seemed tenuous at best.

But several weak Republican senatorial candidates, a surprise GOP
retirement, and the uneven presidential campaign of Republican Mitt
Romney has given Democrats renewed hope that they will retain control of
the upper chamber next year.

Democrats now have a 53 to 47 majority in the Senate, assuming the
support of the two independent senators, Bernie Sanders and Joe
Lieberman.

Democratic control of the Senate has appeared fragile because of
the 33 Senate races that are being held this November, Democrats are
defending 23 seats while the GOP is defending only 10.

But a complex mix of factors over the last several months has
boosted the likelihood that Democrats will retain their majority.

Weak Republican candidates in Indiana, Nevada, and Missouri have
hurt the GOP’s chances to win control of the upper chamber as did the
surprise retirement of Republican senator Olympia Snowe this spring.

Additionally, President Obama has maintained a narrow but steady
lead over Romney in national polls. Republicans had hoped that a surge
by Romney would give a boost to other candidates on the ballot,
including those in key Senate races.

Nate Silver, a respected polling analyst, wrote last week that
Democratic odds of retaining control of the Senate are now 79%, up from
70% the previous week.

Silver said current projections show Democrats are likely to hold a
52 to 48 majority in the Senate in 2013.

“Polls show key races shifting decisively toward the Democrats with
the Republican position deteriorating by the day,” Silver writes.

Most analysts agree that control of the Senate hinges on the
outcomes in about nine key races: Connecticut, Florida, Indiana,
Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Wisconsin and Virginia.

In Connecticut, Linda McMahon, a Republican businesswoman, is in a
close race with Democratic congressman Chris Murphy for the seat that
Lieberman is vacating.

In Florida, incumbent Democratic senator Bill Nelson is battling
Republican congressman Connie Mack.

Indiana, Republican State Treasurer Richard Mourdock is running
almost even with Democratic congressman Joe Donnelly. Mourdock defeated
Republican senator Richard Lugar in the Republican primary this spring.

In Massachusetts, incumbent Republican senator Scott Brown is
facing a stiff challenge from his Democratic rival, Elizabeth Warren.

In Missouri, incumbent Democratic senator Claire McCaskill is
battling Republican congressman Todd Akin. Akin has been under strong
pressure from other Republicans to leave the race because of
controversial comments he made about rape.

In Montana, incumbent Democratic senator Jon Tester is facing a
strong challenge from Republican congressman Denny Rehberg.

In Nevada, incumbent Republican senator Dean Heller is facing off
against Democratic congresswoman Shelley Berkley.

In Wisconsin, former Republican governor Tommy Thompson is battling
Democratic congresswoman Tammy Baldwin.

And in Virginia, former Republican governor and senator George
Allen is in a tight race with former governor Tim Kaine.

** MNI Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$,MCU$$$]