Highlights of the September PCE report

  • Prior was +2.0% y/y
  • Core +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% expected
  • PCE deflator 2.0% vs 2.0% exp
  • Deflator +0.1% m/m vs +0.1% m/m exp
  • Personal income +0.2% vs +0.4% exp
  • Prior personal income +0.3% (revised to +0.4%)
  • Personal spending +0.3% vs +0.3% exp
  • Prior personal spending +0.3% (revised to +0.5%)
  • Real personal spending +0.3% vs +0.3% exp
  • Prior real personal spending +0.2% (revised to +0.4%)

There something for everyone here. Inflation was very close to expectations but the core m/m reading, which is a good real-time measure was a tad hotter than expected.

On the other side of the report, income was soft and spending in line but the prior months for both were revised higher.

There was no immediate market reaction to the report.