October vaccine? yes please

October vaccine? yes please

Vaccine experts are cautiously optimistic about the data that Moderna released late yesterday regarding its COVID-19 virus candidate. Combine that with Pfizer's weekend optimism about its candidate and the market is suddenly feeling great.

The bull case here is that a vaccine candidate (or several) are approved in October and begin distribution in November. That's a timeline that's much better than most could have hoped for. However note that Pfizer itself said the max manufacturing capability was 1.1 billion doses in 2021 so it's still going to be a long road. At the same time, you have to believe all the governments in the world could find a way to do manufacture it faster.

Meanwhile, the easy money isn't going away. Just today the Fed's Harker said he doesn't even want to raise rates once until inflation is above 2%. The fiscal dam has also burst and I envision massive deficits as far as the eye can see.

Add it all up and the S&P 500 is up 36 points to 3233 at the open, a gain of 1%. Watch for a further break higher on a rally above the June high.