That's the key takeaway right now
It looks like Biden is going to win but it's almost certain that Republicans are going to hold the Senate. That means that years of big US stimulus spending aren't coming.
This is most-clearly visible in the bond market where US 10-year yields are down 13 bps and back into the pre-election range. The move has been led by the long-end, which is most sensitive to debt and long-term inflation.
I believe (or believed) that we are on the cusp of a decade of overspending by governments. I think that's still the baseline but it's going to play out on a slower timeline now, at least in the United States.
On a technical basis alone, you have to wonder if that's going to break trendline support and go back to 0.65%, if not lower. Maybe that's a pandemic story, or maybe an election one.
