USD up trend is 99 months old soon. Is it over? No, another 12-24 months still to come
The headline is the in summary version of a client note from UBS on the US dollar.
Its a detailed look at the US dollar trend, but adding to the to the headline points in brief.
When and how the dollar might turn is anyone's guess
- longterm dollar trend ... As of last month, it was still levying upward pressure … did not appear to be waning materially
- medium term trend … duration of 2-5 years … more or less mirrors intra business cycle growth surges and slowdowns
- shorter term one that averages about a year.... seems to relate to shocks caused by politics and supply disruptions to commodities … a modest dollar drag today … could reflect the ... trade war coming home to roost and the drag on Chinese leading indicators passing, as fiscal stimulus from tax cuts and modest credit easing have begun to filter through