The USDCAD has a bias to the downside since the Asian peak, but the move down has not been without fairly choppy trading conditions. The pair has been using the 100 bar MA as topside resistance for most of the London session. The last move higher stopped at the MA level at the 0.9958 level. This level also corresponds with the midpoint of the days range.
Risk is defined and limeted against the level. I would expect the intraday traders to use the level to set shorts with stops on a move above.
Fundamentally, the CAD has benefitted from a better than expected housing number this morning . A negative for the currency (higher USDCAD), however, is lower oil prices once again which has the most active futures contract down $2.00. Moreover, the price is now below the 200 day MA at the $97.41 level (see chart below). A close below this key technical level will next target $94.09 (50% of the move up from the October 2011 low).
The combination of bullish data and bearish oil has helped contribute to the choppy trading conditions in the USDCAD today.