The last time I visited the pair in depth was back in May where I was looking to catch a trade around 1.0400/45. My order went unfilled and the pair came off 300 odd pips.

The world and his dog would love another dip down to parity but that boat looks to have sailed for now as the trend is still looking up.

On the daily chart we have a support line coming from April through July which has kept losses caged. The 100 dma has also played a big role.

usdcaddaily 16 08 2013

Much like my view with USD/CHF I can see the pair coming down before September and we have another longer term support line that will be of interest.

Currently at 1.0146 we have a trendline from Sep 2012 through Jan 2013. This also houses the 200 dma. Just underneath that we have a lovely confluence looking to form of the of the 55, 100 & 200 wma’s. At the moment there is only 40 odd pips between them.

USD/CAD weekly technical analysis chart 16 August 2013

USD/CAD when the stars align your profits will shine

This is potentially one of those “perfect moment” times where the tech lines up for a beautiful trade. Whether we get the chance remains to be seen and it’s probably quite a stretch. However, what we should note is that the 55 and 100 wma’s are looking to cross the 200 wma which in itself is a bullish signal.

As with USD/CHF I favour buying down below and down at that August trendline I’d fill my boots. Same warning as before though in that what happens in September could throw everything into disarray. If it does then it could be a case of trading the breaks rather than the bounces.