Yesterday the Swissy was sold hard and fast, Swissy on the run from all sides and the 0.9390/00 area containing decent technical resistance held out.
The 38.2 fib got held by 2 or 3 pips over so and so did the strong resistance.
On a daily basis I’m not overly enamoured by the picture.
USD/CHF Dailly chart 16 August 2013
The pair has had two upper trendlines to play with. The nearest is from July 2012 and further out we have the one from May 2010. We’ve broken the 2012 line twice but the moves haven’t lasted for any decent amount of time and we’ve fallen sharply and rapidly. Down below the Jan support line has contained the falls but we keep coming back below the July 2012 trendline. Those signs say that this is not a market that is looking bullish.
While the picture doesn’t look bullish to me it’s not looking that bearish either. On the weekly chart another lower trendline from Feb 2012 through Jan 2013 (currently 0.9070) at has provided the support. Added with yet another resistance trendline (yes they’re mounting up) from July 2012 through May 2013 (at 0.9801) we can see a decent range to play.
USD/CHF Weekly chart: There’s your goal posts
My feeling is that we will test the lower weekly Feb 2012 trendline soon. I think there is more dollar selling to come given the fact that it can’t sustain a rally at all at the moment. The dollar is likely to get more nervous and volatile as we approach September as the month is going to be one of the most scrutinised for US data and the FOMC meeting. Nervousness usually results in selling rather than buying.
I’ll be looking to trade off that lower line both for a bounce and a break but will be ready to switch or get out of a trade in an instant depending on the data in the first instance and the Fed in the other. I’m happy to trade the tech up to September but after that all bets are off.