A poor showing from US retail sales could crack the 2016 lows
The US consumer has been plodding along ok. Retail sales have been steady but not spectacular. Last month we saw a decent jump to 1.3% from -0.4% and the Fed will want to see that continue this month.
Expectations aren't that high though. We're expecting 0.3% this month from the headline number and the same from the control group (0.9% prior)
USDJPY has had a look at the year's low and has survived. Right now it looks a case of when, not If, the low breaks as the yen pairs remain under pressure.
USDJPY daily chart
If we do get a break a quick move down towards 100 may follow.
Even a good number today is unlikely to change the mood in USDJPY but the buck will fare better elsewhere.
A bad number will ring out any last expectations for a June hike, and if it's really bad expect July expectations to take a dive also.
It all happens at 12.30 GMT and you can get the full details from our calendar here
