The USDJPY breached the resistance against the 100 day MA (at 80.435) earlier in the day. The high extended to the 80.50 level, but then moved back below in quiet trading (low 80.21) . The price has since inched higher but remains contained between support and resistance trend lines (see 5 minute chart below – 80.39 above, 80.28 below). The market is unsure.
Overall, the bias in the pair is positive. However, in order to continue higher, that 100 day MA needs to be breached. With the level so close and given the strong rally this week (based at the 200 day MA), it makes sense for profit taking sellers against the 100 day MA with stops on a break above. As long as risk can defined and limited against a key technical level it is simply the low risk trade.
