At some point, falling gasoline prices will get the Fed's attention

Every time oil prices fall, there is less pressure on the Fed to hike. Yes, they generally look through temporary inflation but the headline is the mandate and it's headline lower by the minute.

Crude is down 4% today in a swan dive. Metals and soft commodities are also taking a hard hit.

That's one of the reasons that USD/JPY is down to 112.50 after touching 113.00 earlier in the session. Another is that the S&P 500 is near a session low, down 5 points. Given how much these drops will weigh on energy companies and miners, I'm impressed the stock market is holding up as well as it is.

USD/JPY would be weaker if the bonds market wasn't helping out. Yields are up 1.2bps to 3.6bps across the curve and that's a tailwind for the dollar.

If the Republican party shows a bit of unity in the healthcare vote in an hour, the dollar could get more help.