London is on holiday Monday but US pending home sales will be an important event risk. Green shoots abound in recent US data (jobless claims, ISM, regional Fed surveys…), so the housing data will be watched to see if the most damaged sector in the US economy is participating. Some of the worst-hit markets like California and Florida have fallen so far in price that activity has shown signs of reviving.
Tuesday, Bernanke testifies on the Hill on the economic outlook.
Wednesday, the ADP employment report will kick off the employment vigil. Jobless claims on Thursday and the employment report on Friday complete the picture.
Thursday is central bank day. Traders will watch to see if the BOE adds to the GBP 75 bln they have committed to buy in the gilt market. Later in the day, the ECB is expected to trim the refinancing rate a further quarter-point to 1% and announce additional steps to add liquidity in the market by buying commercial paper and extending longer-term bank loans as they embark on their own version of quantitative ease. Late Thursday, we get the results of the US bank stress tests, if they have not leaked already…
