Watching China data for a guide to EUR today
The data dump from China today is due at 0200GMT:
June 2017 activity data:
- Industrial Production y/y expected 5.2%, prior was 5.0% (trade wars, slower domestic demand expected to impact)
- Industrial production YTD y/y expected 5.2%, prior was 6.0%
- Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD y/y, expected 5.6%, prior was 5.6%
- Retail Sales y/y, expected 8.5%, prior was 8.6%
- Retail Sales YTD y/y, expected 8.2%, prior was 8.1%
- Q2 SA q/q expected 1.5%, prior 1.4%
- Q2 YTD y/y % expected 6.3%, prior 6.4%
- Q2 y/y % expected 6.2%, prior 6.4%
- The EUR is likely to keep struggling, particularly if the China recovery is not as strong as expected.
- On a relative basis, it is still weak, and the economic improvement we expect will barely return it to trend. A sustained rally in the EUR is likely to be contingent on a more substantial deterioration in data in the US, but a patient Fed will frustrate EUR bulls.
ANZ nominate 1.13 as their fair value for EUR/USD