Data from the US on Wednesday 21 Nov ahead of the Thursday holiday

Via Barclays:

Durable goods:

  • Working from available forward-looking indicators such as the October ISM, we forecast that headline durable goods orders will move down 3.8% m/m in October on the heels of September's 0.7% m/m increase. This decrease is mostly concentrated in the volatile transportation categories, as we forecast that ex-transportation orders will rebound to a 0.4% m/m increase following a slight decline in September

Existing home sales:

  • We expect existing home sales to have decreased 0.5% m/m (-6.8% y /y), bringing the total level of sales to 5.12mn. Existing home sales have been declining since April, and we expect this weakness to extend to the October report.

UoM consumer sentiment:

  • We expect the final estimate of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment to edge a touch lower to 98.0 (from 98.3). That said, even at this level, the index would remain consistent with broadly positive sentiment

Via Citi:

Existing home sales

  • should fall again in October after a steep drop in September, declining moderately from 5.15 million to 5.12 million (annualized).
  • This is consistent with our expectation that housing activity will continue to be soft in the coming months. Residential investment has weighed on real GDP growth in each quarter of 2018 thus far, and we expect that softness can continue through the first half of 2019 as well. As mortgage rates recently rose alongside the increase in longer term yields through September and October, the effects of depressing housing activity are likely to still be felt in coming quarters
  • Thus, we do not anticipate a significant pick-up in housing activity in the near term

Via Nomura:

Durable goods orders:

  • We expect a modest 0.2% m-o-m increase in ex-transportation durable goods orders in October after remaining flat in September.
  • While we expect steady manufacturing activity to continue in Q4, the new orders index in the ISM manufacturing survey softened in October. Moreover, forward looking capital expenditure indicators of many regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys have eased recently from their elevated levels, suggesting increased downside risk on equipment spending growth in the near term.
  • Transportation orders likely declined sharply in the month considering industry data. WardsAutos' production forecast, after seasonal adjustment, points to a sharp pullback in new orders for vehicle. In addition, civilian aircraft orders likely dropped notably as well after seasonal adjustment. Altogether, we expect a sharp 2.3% decline in aggregate durable goods orders.

Existing home sales:

  • We expect existing home sales to slow further to 5.10mn saar units in October, down 1.0% m-o-m form 5.15mn pace in September. Although pending home sales, which track sale contract signings, increased modestly in September, we think the balance of risk is tilted towards downside. With rising mortgage rates, the volume of mortgage loan applications for purchase has been trending down. Rising interest rates will continue to weigh on housing market turnover and sales.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment:

  • The preliminary November University of Michigan consumer survey showed continued optimism from consumers despite buying conditions for household durables remaining below their March 2018 peak. Most of the preliminary November survey was conducted before the 6 November midterm elections. The final reading could contain additional information on how respondents' views changed by political party as a result of Democrats taking the House of Representatives and Republicans holding the Senate. Shorter-term (one year) inflation expectations in the November survey ticked down 0.1pp to 2.8% while longerterm (5-10 years) increased 0.2pp to 2.6%, the top of the range 2.3-2.6% range held since April 2016.