Via Westpac today, outlooks in summary (bolding is mine):


1 week:

  • Near term momentum is negative and we expect a test of 0.7660 major support
  • This week’s RBNZ meeting – a full-blown MPS – should present downgraded inflation and interest rate forecasts and repeat the warning that the NZD remains too high
  • The market’s response is likley to be to sell the NZD on the day
  • … The 17 Dec FOMC meeting … expectations for more clarity around rate lift-off in the wake of strong jobs data should create a fertile backdrop for the USD to keep plodding higher

3 months:

  • Remains potential for it to fall to 0.7500 by February
  • Dairy commodities remain in a downtrend … and the US dollar’s powerful uptrend remains intact
nzd westpac chart dairy 08 December 2014
  • Moreover, Q4 inflation is expected to remain at 1.0% yoy, which is at the bottom of the RBNZ’s 1%-3% target band, keeping the RBNZ on hold for at least the year ahead … means the NZ-US interest rate differential is vulnerable to falling further

1 year:

  • Should stage a rebound to the low 0.80’s if NZ’s commodity prices rise in line with global demand and the temporary supply effects dissipate
  • This, plus lingering positive risk sentiment, should offset any interest rate disadvantage resulting from the long-awaited Fed tightening.