The odds of a rate cut went up after Lowe's speech earlier

OIS RBA

But the odds don't signal a home run just yet. The OIS market is now pricing in a ~70% probability of the RBA to cut rates at its 4 June meeting, up from ~58% prior to Lowe's speech. It's definitely a notable increase but a rate cut is no done deal, and Lowe's comments that the recent uptick in unemployment not being a trend and that the election had no bearings on policy is not helping in that regard.

However, given his initial comments, you'd have to reckon it's a good bet that the RBA will cut rates in two weeks' time otherwise it'd be bad form to make such remarks ahead of time. Then again, we've seen stranger things when it comes to central banks.

For now, markets will remain convinced that the RBA is angling towards a rate cut so expect traders to keep alluding to that to prevent the aussie from keeping a sustained rally over the next two weeks. A rate cut isn't a sure-fire thing but it doesn't need to be in order to keep the aussie pressured ahead of the RBA meeting on 4 June.