A look at some of the number crunchers and what their tips are for today's non-farm payrolls

Here's the top 5 pickers and their guesses for today, according to Bloomberg's analysis;

  1. Ryan Sweet - Moody's - 165k
  2. Ted Wiesmann - Morgan Stanley - 180k
  3. Jim O'Sullivan - High Frequency Trading - 185k
  4. Robert A Dyer - Comerica - 185k
  5. Stephen Stanley - Amherst Pierpont - 170k

NFP pickers

Most of these folks tend to keep their guesses within a pretty tight range. None of them seem to go out on a limb with their estimates.

Here's the payrolls by the numbers;

  • Both Bloomberg and Reuters median estimate is 180k
  • BBG hi estimate 240k. RTRS 238k
  • BBG & RTRS lo est 140k
  • Unemployment rate est 4.8% vs 4.9% prior
  • ADP came in at 179k
  • Initial jobless averaged 260.25 in July
  • Markit manufacturing PMI employment 53.3 vs 52.3 in June
  • Markit services emp PMI 52.6 vs 52.4 in June
  • ISM manufacturing emp 49.4 vs 50.4 in June
  • ISM non-manufacturing emp 51.4 vs 52.7

This month I've taken a look at GBPUSD in the first 30minutes after the release. A better number has been contained within the lower bound average response. The obvious outlier was the May 38k number.

GBPUSD reaction

I can't really see prices doing an awful lot if we hit a number around estimates, or even if we get a mild beat. Something over 250k would give the buck a boost and might help lift USDJPY from the 101 level. Any move higher on a number between 180k & 250k will probably fade out at some point.

180k - 150k shouldn't hit the dollar too hard. Anything down towards the low 100k would likely see an attempt to drive the price completely under 101. Obviously that's all based on us being around those levels at the time. Sub 100k and the market will start to think that the jobs market has reached it's limits in terms of strong growth. That's going to naturally happen at some point yet it may still scare people into thinking we'll see negative numbers in the not too distant future. The long and short is that it's going to take something very special in this report to kick prices a lot. I'm not expecting that but you can never rule it out with this report, and that's the beauty of it.

As usual, wages will be a big feature. Average hourly earnings are expected to jump a meagre 0.2% vs 0.1% prior m/m, and stay unchanged at 2.6% y/y. Weekly hours are set to come in unchanged at 34.4.

Good luck trading it, if you are and don't forget to make a guess in our NFP competition here