In their monthly report for April, OPEC shared their worries for growth but underneath they made a case for a big price correction
Sometimes it pays to scratch beneath the surface and Brad Beago at Oilprice.com had his drill fired up for the latest OPEC report released on Wednesday.
After digging through the main headlines that most wires presented, he found that OPEC are predicting a huge jump in oil and gas activity during the second half of 2016 which implies that they see prices being much higher than now.
"...what I found in the report was not so much concerns about GDP growth in various regions of the world, although these are expressed and reviewed, but rather the underlying prediction of a massive rebound in oil and gas activity during the second half of 2016! By extension, for non-OPEC production to rebound, the cartel must be assuming much higher oil prices beginning, well, about now."
He makes the case that for OPEC to actually see activity rise to their forecast levels we'd need to see a massive turnaround in investment, and more wells needing to come online. That's something that flies in the face of the current slowdown in spending and falling rig counts.
While he doesn't entirely dismiss that all that may happen, there's a big difference between what OPEC expects and when it all may actually happen.