The language from the Fed could be a key guide to the outcome of tonight's FOMC meeting

The market wants to know when the Fed rate lift off will be. Here's a great compilation of Fed speak from the FOMC members (voting and non voting) from MNI via our mates at EFX news. I've bolded the most hawkish comments on rates.

NOTE: * denotes member is an FOMC voter in 2015. ** denotes comments made exclusively to MNI


William Dudley (New York*): "I still think it is likely that conditions will be appropriate to begin monetary policy normalization later this year." (June 5)

Lael Brainard (Governor*): "While the case for liftoff may not be immediate, it is coming into clearer view... liftoff could come before the end of the year." (June 2)

Eric Rosengren (Boston): "The conditions for beginning the tightening of monetary policy have not yet been met." (June 1)

Narayana Kocherlakota (Minneapolis): "Under my current outlook, I continue to believe that it would be a mistake to raise the target range for the fed funds rate in 2015." (May 28)

James Bullard (St. Louis): "I think, again, I think our base case is that we would like to normalize, or at least I would like to normalize. And that's what I will be arguing for and supporting." (May 28)

Jeffrey Lacker (Richmond*): "I haven't made up my mind about June. I'll wait and see what the data between now and then reveals." (May 26)

Stanley Fischer (Governor*): "The tightening of U.S. policy will begin only when the U.S. expansion has advanced far enough - when we have seen further improvement in the labor market and when we are reasonably confident that the inflation rate will rise to our 2% goal." (May 26)

Janet Yellen (Chair*): "If the economy continues to improve as I expect, I think it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target and begin the process of normalizing monetary policy." (May 22)

Charles Evans (Chicago*): "In my view, it likely will not be appropriate to begin raising the fed funds rate until sometime in early 2016." (May 15)

John Williams** (San Francisco*): "Right now... raising rates sometime later this year seems to make sense with where we are." (May 11)

Esther George (Kansas City): "That means each meeting a possibility for raising interest rates. And I have been very public about my own concerns and preferences for normalizing rates." (May 6)

Dennis Lockhart (Atlanta*): "All meetings are in play... including June. I'm still of the view that the conditions will be appropriate in the middle of the year, which we are getting closer to." (May 6)

Loretta Mester (Cleveland): "All meetings are on the table. I'm going to be data dependent. I'm going to look at the data and I'm going to go into each meeting with an assessment of the data that come in. I have not taken any meetings off the table." (May 1)


Dudley (New York*): "I am also uncertain about whether we will see further progress in the labor market over the remainder of the year." (June 5)

Daniel Tarullo (Governor*): "We really want to see healthier wage gains. Presumably at some point we will see it." (June 4)

Brainard (Governor*): "My judgment is that there is still room for employment and hours worked to grow further, as there are other labor market indicators that suggest slack not captured by the unemployment rate." (June 2)

Rosengren (Boston): "If the economy continues to grow at the same pace as we witnessed on average in the current and the past two quarters, I do not expect to see timely improvements in the unemployment rate." (June 1)

Kocherlakota (Minneapolis): "We would need to see at least three more years like 2014 for labor market conditions to return to their 2006 levels." (May 28)

Bullard (St. Louis): "So what's going to happen here is in the next six months or so, maybe eight months, we'll be down in the four percent range on unemployment. And four percent handle on unemployment for the U.S. economy is essentially boom times for the U.S. economy. It doesn't get any better than that." (May 28)

Lacker (Richmond*): "We've had strength on the employment side." (May 26)

Yellen (Chair*): "The generally disappointing pace of wage growth also suggests that the labor market has not fully healed." (May 22)

Evans (Chicago*): "I think we are still about 1/2 of a percentage point above the longer-run normal rate of unemployment." (May 15)

Williams** (San Francisco*): "We need to run the labor market a little hot from the point of view of the unemployment rate." (May 11)

Mester (Cleveland): "To me, the employment reports are going to be indicative of a lot because if we see those come in good, that's going to support consumer spending and income. That's going to be the important factor in how I think about things." (May 1)


Dudley (New York*): "I am becoming more confident that inflation will return to our 2 percent objective over the medium term, as long as the labor market continues to improve - an important caveat." (June 5)

Evans (Chicago*): "I do not think it would be a problem if we took a 'whites of their eyes' attitude on inflation. We need to see core inflation rise more." (June 3)

Brainard (Governor*): "Despite the deflationary pressures from abroad, the recent data have provided some reassurance that inflation in the United States is starting to firm." (June 2)

Rosengren (Boston): "Either the 'total' nor the 'core' measures of PCE inflation are yet showing much evidence of returning to the 2% inflation target that the Fed considers ideal." (June 1)

Kocherlakota (Minneapolis): "I don't expect PCE inflation to return to target until 2018." (May 28)

Bullard (St. Louis): "I mean inflation is low, but it's not that low. And we did get a stronger CPI, a core CPI just recently. So I think inflation will move back toward target." (May 28)

Fischer (Governor*): "There is no question that sharp declines in U.S. output or large deviations of U.S. inflation from its target level would have adverse effects on the global economy." (May 26)

Lacker (Richmond*): "The inflation numbers are striking. We're clearly pretty firm there, and I think the dip associated with the oil price decline is well behind us right now... It looks pretty clear inflation is headed back towards 2%, and so that's heartening." (May 26)

Yellen (Chair*): "I expect inflation to move up toward our objective of 2% as the economy strengthens further and as transitory influences wane." (May 22)

Williams (San Francisco*): "By waiting until we're face-to-face with 2 percent inflation, we could need to slam on the brakes or even skid through the intersection. Overshooting the mark would force us into a much more dramatic rate hike to reverse course, which could have a destabilizing effect on the markets and possibly damage the economic recovery." (May 12)


Dudley (New York*): "Longer-term, I expect that the trajectory of short-term interest rates after lift-off will likely be relatively shallow." (June 5)

Brainard (Governor*): "Given the unique conditions in the labor market and the economy more broadly, I will want to move step by step - observing how the markets and the economy respond before gauging the appropriate next step in the policy path." (June 2)

Fischer (Governor*): "Liftoff says we're going straight up with the interest rate. Well, we're going up with the interest rate, then along, and then another little jump. That's not liftoff, that's crawling." (June 1)

Bullard (St. Louis): "As long as we don't have some indication the economy is slowing down in some unanticipated way, I would be supportive of getting started with the normalization process, because we have a long, long way to go." (May 28)

Lacker (Richmond*): "I think market's reaction when we liftoff with rates will be informative. It's going to be revealing." (May 26)

Yellen (Chair*): "We have no intention of embarking on a preset course of increases in the federal funds rate after the initial increase." (May 22)

Williams** (San Francisco*): "My view is we will not raise rates at every meeting this time." (May 11)

Evans (Chicago*): "A properly shallow path of increases - even if we were to increase rates sooner than I would like - would still be quite supportive of continued strong economic recovery." (May 4)

It's a great quick overview on the mindset of members and further highlights the main factor in all of this, that virtually every Fed member, even the most dovish, are preparing for interest rates to rise. That's a given and the reason why the dollar has done nothing but go up and up. Now we're just at the stage where we're tinkering around the edges of when that will happen. It's also pertinent to point out that when we do get lift off that could well mark the end of the rally and we'll enter a more stable period in the currency where we just trade on normal fundamental moves and central banks fine tune policy rather than lurching from one crisis to another. And boy, it's been a long time since we've done that

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