The crowded consensus is often the wrong place to be

Bloomberg details some of the best forecasters from last year and what they expect in 2016.


Goldman Sachs's David Kostin was the top stock market forecaster last year as he predicted a flattish market. Once again in 2014 he sees the S&P 500 rising no higher than 2100 (spot at 2021).

US bonds

Janney Montgomery Scott's Guy LeBas was best last year and sees the 10-year Treasury yield flat at 2.22% compared to the 2.75% median.

Global bonds

Mitsubishi UFJ's Hideo Shimomura was the top global bond strategist last year and is bullish this year, saying low inflation in Australia leave room for the RBA to cut. He also warns about junk bonds.


The consensus was right in 2016 and analysts broadly called for US dollar strength. Enrique Diaz-Alvarez of Ebury Partners had one of the most bearish EUR/USD calls and sees the pair hitting 0.95 in the year ahead.

A year ago I spoke with Dale Pinkert and offered my predictions for 2015. Let's hope my ideas for 2016 turn out just as well.

Get them here.