What Sunday's Catalonia election means for the euro

Author: Adam Button | Category: News

Spain's Catalonia region heads to the polls on Sunday

The separatist hotbed of Catalonia is headed to a regional vote on Sunday. The results won't likely be available until after markets open for the week.

The national government blocked a referendum on separation earlier this year so this vote is seen as a proxy.

The party to watch is called Together for Yes, who are basically a slate of candidates dedicated to separation. Polls show that alone they don't have enough seats for a majority but if joined by the CUP -- a far-left pro-independence party -- they would have the support.

The Guardian and WSJ have good previews of voter intentions.

What it means for the euro

Naturally, if Spain breaks up it's a poor sign for the euro but this is far from the definitive vote. It's easy for people to vote for a separatist party when nothing is on the line. Like in Scotland, when the chips are on the table, voters get scared.

There may be kneejerk euro sales in thin Asian trading around the open on Sunday if the separatist vote is especially strong but if it extends by more than 50 pips, all else being equal, then the trade is to fade it.


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