Not much impact

Not much impact

The swift fall of Afghanistan caught the world off guard with President Ashraf Ghani fleeing the capital as it fell.

It will certainly be the major geopolitical story this week but I don't see any angles where it will affect markets. Afghanistan's economy is tiny by any standard (except perhaps the opium trade). For example, Afghanistan uses only 30,000 barrels per day of oil.

What will happen is a human tragedy and an embarrassment for the US and the coalition that fought for 20 years to overthrow it but I don't see how it moves the needle in markets in any way.

Some point to potential gold demand with people fleeing but even there, the minuscule wealth of Afghanistan is negligible.

The UN security council will meet on Monday.