A preview of the China IP data for August.

I suspect tariff wobbles will well and truly begin to show in numbers from now … pre-tariff 'stockpiling' and what have you should be over

  • Industrial Production y/y expected is 6.1%, prior was 6.0%
  • industrial production YTD y/y expected is 6.5%, prior was 6.6%
  • Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD y/y, expected is 5.6%, prior was 5.5%
  • Retail Sales y/y, expected is 8.8%, prior was 8.8%
  • Retail Sales YTD y/y, expected is 9.3%, prior was 9.3%

Anyway, this via Barclays:

  • We forecast industrial production growth will remain subdued at 6.0% in August, as evidenced by softer high frequency data (including coal consumption by major power plants, excavator and heavy truck scales). We expect fixed asset investment growth to remain weak at 5.5% on likely still subdued infrastructure investment. We expect retail sales growth to edge lower to 8.7% in August from 8.8% in July largely dragged down by auto sales.

Barclays tipping, in summary:

  • Industrial Production y/y 6.0%
  • Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD y/y 5.5%
  • Retail Sales y/y, expected is 8.7%