What's the consensus forecast for US GDP growth in the quarters ahead
What is expected
JP Morgan is getting some attention today after economists there forecast a negative GDP number in Q1 2021 because of the virus resurgence and middling signals on US fiscal stimulus.
That's a long way from consensus, which is still bullish on the recovery. Expect that to change in the weeks ahead as the lockdowns mount.
Currently, the consensus forecast for Q4 is +4.0% q/q SAAR followed by 3.1% in Q1 and 3.3% in Q2. What I expect we will see is a move to downgrade Q4 and Q1 while boosting the further-out quarters in 2021.
Here's a look at the consensus: