What's the consensus forecast for US GDP growth in the quarters ahead

Author: Adam Button | Category: News

What is expected

JP Morgan is getting some attention today after economists there forecast a negative GDP number in Q1 2021 because of the virus resurgence and middling signals on US fiscal stimulus.

That's a long way from consensus, which is still bullish on the recovery. Expect that to change in the weeks ahead as the lockdowns mount.

Currently, the consensus forecast for Q4 is +4.0% q/q SAAR followed by 3.1% in Q1 and 3.3% in Q2. What I expect we will see is a move to downgrade Q4 and Q1 while boosting the further-out quarters in 2021.

Here's a look at the consensus:
US GDP growth

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