A full slate of polls is due tomorrow ahead of Thursday’s referendum vote. That will be the last chance to gauge the strength of the independence vote.
As for the referendum itself, I believe the results will be released en masse, rather than in piecemeal form so there won’t be an opportunity to trade the ebb and flow of the numbers. What there will be are rumors and leaks of the results. That means there will inevitably be a rumor of a strong Yes vote and a dip in the pound.
If so, I like buying that dip as a trading strategy.
Otherwise, it’s all about gathering as much information as possible and picking a side. To me that sounds a bit more like gambling than trading but picking the No side is a way to fade the Old Money fears.
Finally, I believe there is plenty of room for a pound bounce in the day or two after the result (if it’s a strong No vote). It might simply be better to wait for the dust to settle.
Update: A little bird whispers in my ear that the votes from each district will be coming out all through the night with the final result sometime around 4am London time. So the results might be tradeable. I’ll follow up.