Via Bloomberg
As the US elections approach one of the worries that may rear its head is that concern known as the 'big blue shift'. Now according to Bloomberg this is the possibility that unofficial results on election might mean President Trump declares a victory on election night, but further vote counting over subsequent days and weeks results in a Joe Biden victory. As you can imagine that would throw the US administration in a real spin.
How could this happen?
The phrase 'big blue shift' was coined by Edward B. Foley in his 2013 paper which studied elections in the US back to the year 2000. He found that Democrat candidates are more likely to make major gains during the official and compete talking of ballot boxes. You can access the paper of his research here titled: 'Preparing for a Disputed Presidential Election: An exercise in Election Risk Assessment and Management. Reading the introduction Foley paints a very conceivable picture of the way that President Trump might tweet through the election night if he starts to see his lead fall as/if the 'blue shift' phenomena takes place. It is worth quoting in full:
It is Election Night 2020. This time it is all eyes on Pennsylvania, as whoever wins the Keystone State will win an Electoral College majority. Trump is ahead in the state by 20,000 votes, and he is tweeting "The race is over. Another four years to keep Making America Great Again."
The Associated Press (AP) and the networks have not yet declared Trump winner. Although 20,000 is a sizable lead, they have learned in recent years that numbers can shift before final, official certification of election results. They are afraid of "calling" the election for Trump, only to find themselves needing to retract the call-as they embarrassingly did twenty years earlier, in 2000. Trump's Democratic opponent, _________ (fill in the blank with whichever candidate you prefer; I will pick Elizabeth Warren since at the moment she is the front-runner according to prediction markets),1 is not conceding, claiming the race still too close to call. Both candidates end the night without going in front of the cameras.
In the morning, new numbers show Trump's lead starting to slip, and by noon it is below 20,000. Impatient, Trump holds an impromptu press conference and announces:
I've won reelection. The results last night showed that I won Pennsylvania by over 20,000 votes. Those results were complete, with 100 percent of precincts reporting. As far as I'm concerned, those results are now final. I'm not going to let machine politicians in Philadelphia steal my reelection victory from me-or from my voters!
Why is it a concern this year?
- COVID-19 concerns means many states are making it easier to vote by mail.
- President Trump is railing against postal voting as 'open to fraud'
- The key state of Pennsylvania is particularly vulnerable to a very tense and contested vote count.
Finally the Associated Press normally call a winner once they are convinced that one candidate had secured 270 of the 538 votes. Normally one candidate will concede before the morning. However, this year, the pressure will be on to avoid a premature call and not to get caught out by the 'blue shift'. One area to watch for.
