Via Bloomberg
There is rightly a high focus on the NFP data today, but is there too much hope being pinned on a good jobs number to reverse this weeks falls? This is my instinct and I came across a Bloomberg article that made a good case for even a positive jobs print having a limited positive impact today.
- Average change on payrolls is slipping and is in a downtrend - see chart below
- Stock bulls have been hoping the US consumer keeps the U.S economy going. That story is undermined by slowing jobs growth and weakness in leading indicators.
- NFP is a lagging indicator and surveys of purchasing managers, while volatile, are giving a stronger hint of contraction. ISM Manu- was down to 2009 low and services was down to 3 year low
- inverted yield curve suggests smart money is in fixed income bonds
- US China trade war probably set to decide the direction
- S&P 500 posted 3% two day drop since Thursday
Ok, so all eyes onto the NFP for later - What say you forexlove readers? How are you reading the situation?
