Deutsche Bank expects NFP to come in under 200k
DB is out with a note saying that they expect Friday's payroll number to come in at around 170k. The market is expecting around 218k
They don't put it down to any fundamental weakness in the jobs market but say that the August numbers historically come in lower than expected. They highlight the last four which all missed by an average to 55k
They go back further to show that this has happened going back to 1988
"The data are even more compelling if we go back further in time. Since 1988, when our sample begins, August nonfarm payrolls have disappointed the financial markets in 21 of the last 27 years, or 78% of the time. The average forecasting error has been -61k. The range of misses, though, has been large. The median forecast error has been -42k,"
They don't delve into the why's reasons why the month of August has been weak but a good reason might be the summer period when people are on holiday
We get a first sniff at the jobs numbers shortly by way of the ADP report for August. We're expecting 200k vs 185k prior. While not directly correlated the market loves this number as a precursor to NFP. Due to the significance of data to the Fed and the FOMC right around the corner, be prepared to see larger moves in markets than usual
Efxnews carries the story and you can check their work out on a free trial
