The recent track record of this report is dismal
Since the beginning of the pandemic, the ADP employment report has been downright useless in predicting non-farm payrolls, yet the market falls for it again and again.
Last month was particularly bad with 978K jobs sparking talk of 1m in non-farm payrolls. Instead, the NFP report was at a below-consensus reading at 559K. The month before was even worse.
But like a bad trader who never learns to manage risk, the market will eat it up again this week. The consensus is +600K.
