The big US manufacturing ISM PMI is up at 14.00 GMT

The trend is clear in US manufacturing and today we get the big one from the ISM. It was called NAPM and pronounced Napalm back in my floor days and it's always been a good market mover.

Today it's facing tough times and is hovering close to contraction. August's 51.1 is expected to drop to 50.6 in September and on the basis of the other major reports, the fall is looking more likely than a rise

US manufacturing

It's been a bad month and quarter for manufacturing and although it's not a huge part of the GDP make up, it is a big part of monitoring the trends in the economy. One place that could be hit hardest is jobs. That makes the employment component of today's data even more important ahead of NFP tomorrow

If the number comes out close to last month then the dollar may find some relief buying. Anywhere below the expected number and the buck will suffer. Should it fall under 50.0 then there could be some real trouble

With a data dependant Fed the data is becoming more and more important and the market will move more violently on variations

Ahead of the ISM we have the final Markit number and that might take some pressure off if it rises from the 53.0 posted in the flash

So it's eyes down for the numbers and what it means for the Fed