The better Chinese trade balance surplus is getting all the headlines today but the sharp, unexpected slowdown in imports has been overlooked. Imports rose 5.3% compared to 9.0% expected.
There has been a great deal of noise in this report recently because of the Lunar New Year and the leap year but the four-month moving average shows a clear slowing trend.
Copper analysts are citing this data point today and I have often argued that it’s undervalued. Chinese imports of raw materials are the first step in the global manufacturing cycle and a slowdown is one of the best, early signs of weakening global growth.
