September was when workers were supposed to return
September was supposed to be the month when kids returned to school and employees returned to the office but both those plans are now in flux.
School reopening is a uneven with different regions offering divergent plans. The proof will be in how the first few weeks of school go, and whether a backlash doesn't appear or the outbreak re-intensifies.
The office is a different case. The WSJ writes about how many companies had hoped to resume office work in September but now employees are pushing back.
In an August survey of 15 major employers that collectively employ about 2.6 million people, 57% said they had decided to postpone their back-to-work plans because of recent increases in Covid-19 cases.
The FT cites an interesting survey from ManPowerGroup that shows workers in the US and UK least enthusiastic about returning while Germans were more upbeat.
Another showed that 83% of staff in France are already back in the office while the number in the UK is just 34%.
It's tough to say what this all means for the economy. There's no doubt that work-from-home trends are accelerating and employees are continuing to push for it. At the moment, employers have little leverage but that won't always be the case. In an earlier post, I noted this comment from JPMorgan Asset Management strategist Karen Ward:
"On the one hand, central banks are under tremendous political pressure to keep rates low, and governments have lost their fear of debt," she said. "But once furlough schemes come to an end you can see a scenario where companies say 'you can come back on 80 per cent of your pay, or we let you go'."
