Wrap up of the UK CPI previews (data due Tuesday) - all in one place

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

Inflation data from the UK due at 0930 GMT

A couple of (in brief) non-bank previews now

Via Capital economics  
We expect CPI inflation to hold steady at 3% in January, before continuing to fall further over the course of 2018.
  • The fall-back in CPI inflation from 3.1% in November to 3% in December probably marks the beginning of what we expect will be a sustained downward trend over the coming year.
on the basis of its past relationship with changes in the trade-weighted exchange rate, we expect core inflation to fall back over the coming months as the impact of the pound's depreciation continues to fade. 

Overall, then, we expect CPI inflation to drop back gradually and end this year at 21/4%. This should provide households with some relief from the real pay squeeze.

Pantheon Macroeconomics:
  • CPI inflation probably held steady at 3.0% in January. A 0.07pp drop in motor fuel's contribution to the headline rate likely was partly offset by slight increases in food inflation and tobacco inflation.
  • In addition, we think that core inflation edged up to 2.6% in January, from 2.5% in December, because retailers, particularly in the clothing sector, cut prices to a greater extent than usual in January 2017.
  • Surveys also point to larger price increases in the services sector, although they have been a poor guide to the official data lately.
  • Consensus: 2.9%

Earlier previews here:
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