WTI falls to the lows of the day
US crude oil fell $1 to a session low of $62.25 as US-Iran war drums quiet for the moment.
The latest spike in prices is beginning to look more like the Saudi spike in September in that the high came shortly after the event only to fade as WW3 didn't materialize.
In addition, reports of fog in the Houston shipping channel mean US exports could slow this week and lead to an inventory build. At 4:30 pm ET today we get the weekly API storage data. The inventory reports are back on schedule after weeks of holiday disruptions. The consensus is for a 3000K draw.
Looking ahead, I like oil but I think we need to go back and test $60, if not $58. When a rally eventually comes, it needs to be on some kind of sustained fundamentals like a pickup in global growth or a decline in shale production -- something I think could start in H2.