More Yellen: Labor market report is disappointing.
- An encouraging aspect is hourly earnings +2.5%. Wage growth may finally be catching up
- # of initial claims remains quite low
- Quit rate is an indication that workers are confident about finding a new job
- 12 months through April on PCE only rose 1%.
- Oil has kept inflation lower. Oil prices are starting to rise.
- Dollar strength has held down prices of imported goods. but has been relatively since the beginning of the year.
- Expects the headwinds from lower oil and the dollar, along with higher wages should increase expected inflation
- Expect consumer spending to grow at a solid rate.
- Expect the housing sector to make further progress
- Economic developments abroad have significantly restrained growth in the United States over the past year, although I am cautiously optimistic that these headwinds are now fading.
- Indicators suggest that foreign economies are growing, if still at only a moderate pace, and foreign financial markets have recovered and stabilized.
- Although lower oil prices have likely been a positive influence on the U.S. economy overall, they also have had a negative side, given the sizable U.S. energy industry
- Business investment has been weak in the past six months or so, even beyond the energy sector, and investment in capital equipment is reported to have declined in the last quarter of 2015 and first quarter of this year. Expext transitory element and expects it to expand, but the latest labor market data is a concern.