Forex news for New York trade on April 15, 2021:
- US March advance retail sales +9.8% vs +5.8% expected
- US initial jobless claims 576K vs 700K estimate
- US April Philly Fed business outlook 50.2 vs 41.5 expected
- US April Empire Fed manufacturing +26.3 vs +20.0 expected
- US NAHB home builders index 83 vs 84 expected
- US March industrial production +1.4% vs +2.5% expected
- Canada March existing home sales +5.2% m/m vs +6.6% prior
- Canada February manufacturing sales -1.6% vs -1.0% expected
- Fed's Daly: It's 'critical' to shore up stability of hedge funds and money market funds
- More from Daly: 'Hard work' will start in economy after H2
- France coronavirus deaths surpass 100,000
- Fed's Bostic: The FOMC won't preemptively slow economy to avoid overheating
- US February business inventories +0.5% vs +0.5% expected
- Italy cabinet approves stimulus worth 40B euros - report
- Italy cuts 2021 GDP growth forecast to 4.5% from 6.0% - report
Markets:
- Gold up $30 to $1766
- US 10-year yields down 10 bps to 1.53%
- S&P 500 up 45 points to 4170
- WTI crude up 17-cents to $63.32
- NZD leads, CAD lags
US economic data was much stronger than expected but the FX market generally took it in stride, offering little reaction aside from some mild USD strength.
What ended up dominating the session was a 'buy everything' mode, particularly in Treasuries. Explanations ranged from short covering, to a rethink on inflation, to Japanese buying but nothing was particularly compelling and it didn't spill over to USD/JPY as much as you would expect.
For the most part, FX moves were sideways. One exception was USD/CAD, which broke below 1.25 in Asia but couldn't stay there and steadily rose to 1.2550 ahead of the London fix. It's a counterintuitive move given the strength in commodities and equities as is likely flow driven.
EUR/USD continued to consolidate just below 1.2000. It fell as low as 1.1956 but bids ahead of 1.1950 picked it up on three separate pushes lower. It's going to need some kind of nudge to get above the figure but watch the 1.1950-1.2000 range.
Gold was shining on the day as it broke a double top and the recent range. Falling Treasury yields were a big help in the jump, which is a nice technical breakout from what looked last week like a technical failure.
Cable didn't do much to get the blood moving as it chopped around 1.3785. AUD/USD consolidated at the top of the range and will be in focus with a slate of Chinese data coming up.
