king dollar

The US dollar is higher today once again and that has it breaking out on a number of fronts, or close:


This is the latest one as the pound earlier today fell to the lowest since 1985. That includes a break of a major double bottom from Brexit and the pandemic. This time it's the energy crisis and worries the BOE has lost control of inflation. Earlier today UK retail sales disappointed at -1.6% vs -0.5% expected in a sign of a retrenching consumer.

GBPUSD monthly


This one certainly isn't on the scope of GBP/USD but USD/CAD yesterday hit the highest since the start of the year and it's up another 50 pips today. There's some minor resistance near 1.34 but if that breaks, we could edge up into the top half of the long-term range. This is truly a barometer of global growth right now as commodity shortages complete with slowing global growth. The chart is a fascinating one as it shows two major tops and two major bottoms. At some point, we'll get the tiebreaker.

USDCAD weekly


Unlike the others on this list, the euro hasn't broken out yet but there isn't much of a cushion down to 0.9862 and the pair is down 30 pips today. Eurozone inflation was a touch high today and economists are ramping up forecasts for rate hikes but there's also a growing fear that a harsh recession is coming. The good news is that TTF natural gas prices are down another 9% today and German power prices have fallen sharply in the past two days. But even with that, the euro has barely mustered a bounce.

EURUSD daily


The Australian dollar today fell to the lowest since the pandemic.It wasn't the cleanest break and will bear watching closely today and it came despite some better Chinese economic data. The fear is that the global economy is slowing and Australian real estate is busting.

AUDUSD daily Sept 16

What could turn it around?

Today is quad witching and that could make for some choppy moves in stocks. S&P 500 futures are down 1% on FedEx's warning and that has everyone talking. However it still comes back to the Fed, not FedEx. If the Fed's going to leak something about not hiking 100 bps, today would be the day to do it, after the UMich data. Also notable is that Treasury yields are largely flat today and US 10s still haven't broken the June high.