A heavy release calendar today highlighted by Durable good, weekly claim, and Fed minutes

The US will be on Holiday tomorrow in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday, but today is a full day in the stock and bond markets. Friday will be a early close for each however.

The Fed will keep traders chained to their desks today to at least 2PM as they release their minutes from the last meeting at that time.

Recall, the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points to 4.00% (high) at that meeting, and added this disclaimer:

"In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments."

However, they also said:

"The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term to 2 percent over time."

The Fed members, since then, have leaned more toward 50 bps in December, but the terminal rate and future tightening pace is unknown. Nevertheless, the policy is more into restrictive territory (the Fed considered 2.5% as neutral), but that was only since September 21, when they tightened to 3.25%. More hikes to come, but the end is closer (at least for a pause).

Today

• The weekly initial (Est 225K vs 222K last) and continuing claims (est 1.517M vs 1.507M last week) will be released (at 8:30 AM) earlier due to the holiday tomorrow.
• Durable goods (Est 0.4% vs 0.4% last month) will also be released at 8:30 AM. The ex transportation is expected at 0.0% vs -0..5% last. Non-defense capital expeditures ex air is expected at 0.0% vs -0.7% last
• At 9:45 AM the Flash PMI for service and manufacturing (services est 47. vs 46.6 last, Manufacturing 50.0 vs 49.9 last month) will be released.
• At 10 AM, the Univ. of Michigan will take time off from the preparation for the big football game this weekend vs Ohio State, to announce their revised consumer sentiment with expectations of 55.0 vs 54.7 last.
• Also at 10 AM the New Home Sales for October are expected to decline to 0.570M from 0.603M last month.