ADP employment survey
ADP employment survey
  • Prior was +164K (revised to +158K)

The median change in annual pay:

  • Job stayers 5.2% versus 5.4% last month
  • Job changers 7.2% versus 8.0% last month

I'm not sure anyone wants to bet the farm on ADP but if you take the last five months, there's a clear weakening trend to around 100K.

Comment from ADP chief economist Nela Richardson:

"Progress on inflation has brightened the economic picture despite a slowdown in hiring and pay. Wages adjusted for inflation have improved over the past six months, and the economy looks like it's headed toward a soft landing in the US and globally."

The US dollar edged lower on the data but it's tough to really push it given the FOMC later.

ADP establishment