If the euro stays at the current 1.0823 level, it will be the lowest close since May 2020 and less than 20 pips from the March intraday low of 1.0806.
The single currency got some life yesterday from a pop in bund yields and tried to rally again today on post-CPI USD weakness but the economic headwind from the Ukraine war/sanctions continues to be too much for the bulls to overcome. The price action in the past two days is deeply disappointing and this is looking like a desperate last stand to hold 1.0806.
I suspect the market will wait for the ECB on Thursday to seriously test that level but it will take a hawkish pivot from Lagarde to save the day.
