This summary of an ANZ note is via the folks at eFX.

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ANZ analysts forecast that USD/JPY is more inclined to reach the 150 level rather than descending to 140 in the upcoming month.

  • While the weaker employment data may initially provide some relief to the JPY, the longer-term trajectory leans towards a stronger USD.
  • ANZ suggests that if the Federal Reserve opts to maintain elevated interest rates, short-end U.S. yields could surpass the 5% mark, pushing USD/JPY to 150.
  • Key Points:
    • Short-Term Relief for JPY: Softer U.S. employment data and yields could offer temporary respite to the JPY.
    • Long-Term Direction: The 1-month outlook for USD/JPY leans more towards an upward direction, targeting 150 rather than a decline to 140.
    • Federal Reserve Decision: If the Fed keeps interest rates high, short-end U.S. yields could return to above 5%, further boosting USD/JPY to 150.
  • Implications for traders and investors:
    • Short-term: The JPY may experience a brief respite owing to softer U.S. employment data and yields.
    • Medium-term: The 1-month outlook leans towards a stronger USD against the JPY. Positioning for a move towards 150 in USD/JPY may be advisable.


usdjpy anz forecast 31 August 2023