AUD/USD hourly chart

The RBA looks to finally have one-upped the market but perhaps this is mostly a response to the fact that the Fed will also be raising interest rates one more time later this week. I mean, if the mantra is to follow the Fed, this will likely be the last rate hike delivered in this tightening cycle unless inflation continues to blow up.

The aussie has benefited from the decision and the RBA message remains mostly the same as when they left policy unchanged last month. Could that indicate a real pause this time around?

Well, the rates market certainly thinks so as even the shift in the OIS curve is just to account for the surprise today - at least for now.

The shift in rates pricing before and after the RBA surprise

If that is the extent of rates pricing, I would argue that any aussie upside may be more limited.

But from a technical standpoint, AUD/USD has moved back above its 200-hour moving average (blue line) as seen above. That puts buyers back in near-term control but just be mindful of resistance at the 200-day moving average - now seen at 0.6732. I would argue that is where sellers will step in more firmly alongside resistance at the 100-day moving average at 0.6789.