A debt ceiling deal isn't done yet but it's safe to trade as if it is. Here are the latest comments from US House majority leader Kevin McCarthy.
- We do not have a deal yet
- June 5 date doesn't change things
- We'll get debt ceiling deal when it gets right
- Have not dropped permitting reform from debt ceiling negotiations
- 'Firmly believe' all Americans will like debt ceiling bill
- Can meet June 5 deadline
I don't doubt there will be one more scare as the details are hammered out but -- like I've said from the beginning -- the US was never going to default and this whole thing is the longest-running joke in politics. Here's a poem that captures my feelings with some help from ChatGPT:
In the heart of the nation where the star-spangled flies, A cycle persists, underneath the blue skies. A dance as old as time, with a tune familiar, A tale of market fears that feel peculiar.
Through the halls of power, a debate is heard, Over numbers and figures, every single word. Every few years, when the ceiling is near, The markets tremble, succumbing to fear.
As the debt approaches the rigid, set cap, The nation holds its breath, bracing for a mishap. Market bears and bulls, they squabble and fight, In the shadow of potential default's twilight.
From Wall Street to Main, fears wildly grow, As the words of doom in the media flow. "Default," they whisper, with a chilling dread, But history's lessons are often left unread.
For since '60, the count stands at seventy-eight, Times when the nation was in a similar state. Each time, the ceiling, it rose once more, And the wolf was banished from the door.
In Congress, they bicker, and the clock ticks on, But in the eleventh hour, an agreement is drawn. The ceiling rises, the fears allay, The United States pays its dues, saves the day.
Market's heartbeat stabilizes, sighs a relief, As the nation escapes the defaulting grief. It's a dance we've danced, again and again, A well-worn path, known by market men.
So as the fears rise, with the ceiling in sight, Remember the cycle, in the soft moonlight. For although it teeters on a precarious ledge, The US always steps back from the edge.