The prepared text is over. The Fed chair leaves the door open for data dependent changes going forward. He said that the June inflation disappointed and hence the need to raise rates by 75 basis points.

If the July data is lower (oil is lower, commodities are lower), it might lead to a lower move higher.

The Fed is not anticipating but looking at the data.


  • EURUSD moves to a new session high and approaches the 200 and 100 hour moving averages near 1.0178 and 1.0183. The price is now breaking above those MA levels
  • GBPUSD moves above its 50% retracement of the move down from the June 16 high at 1.20825, and also above the high for the week at 1.2089754 with the 61.8% retracement up at 1.21587
  • USDJPY is breaking back below the 100 hour MA below at 136.80. A swing area comes in at 136.36 to 136.45
  • USDCAD falls back below the 100 hour MA at 1.2873 and looks to test a swing area at 1.2837 to 1.28425. Below that and the swing lows between 1.2815 to 1.28214 would be targeted
  • AUDUSD is running higher to test the highs for the week/last week at 0.6977 to 0.69827. The price just traded between those levels. A break above is needed to kick start more upstart momentum.

The stocks have moved higher (2:50 PM ET):

  • Dow is up 361 points or 1.12%
  • S&P is up 84 points ro 2.15%
  • Nasdaq is up 413 points or 3.55%