The European Central Bank delivered the +50bp rate hike that was widely expected prior to the turmoil in banking. Swift response to ease liquidity helped the ECB decide to go ahead.

Coming up at 10am GMT, 6am US Eastern time, is eurozone February final CPI. Watch for revisions, higher would keep the ECB well on track for its next rate hike. In summary the picture in Europe is:

  • core CPI at yearly highs +5.2%
  • improving leading cycle indicators such as IFO, ZEW, and PMIs are improving
  • bottlenecks in production chains are easing
  • mild weather
  • fiscal support

which, on balance, support further hikes ahead.

Right now, this pic is way more than a thousand words.

Lagarde fingers crossed