New York Fed
Empire manufacturing index

Business activity declined in New York State for the first time since early in the pandemic, according to firms responding to the March 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell fifteen points to -11.8, its lowest level since May 2020.

The index for number of employees dropped nine points to 14.5, pointing to a modest increase in employment levels, and the average workweek index moved down to 3.5, indicating a slightly longer workweek. The prices paid index edged down three points to 73.8, while the prices received index rose two points to a record high of 56.1, signaling ongoing substantial increases in both input prices and selling prices.

Firms were generally optimistic about the six-month outlook. The index for future business conditions climbed eight points to 36.6. Longer delivery times, higher prices, and increases in employment are all expected in the months ahead, and capital spending plans remained firm. ■

  • Prior month 3.1
  • General business conditions -11.8 versus 7.0 estimate
  • New orders -11.8 versus 3.1 last month
  • Shipments -7.4 versus 2.9 last month
  • Employment 14.5 versus 23.1 last month.
  • Average employee workweek 3.5 versus 10.9 last month.
  • Unfilled orders 13.1 versus 14.4 last month.
  • Inventories 21.5 versus 11.7 last month.
  • Delivery time 32.7 versus 21.6 last month
  • Prices paid 73.8 versus 76.6 last month.
  • Prices received 56.1 versus 54.1 last month.

Forward-looking (six month ahead) expectations showed:

Forward confidence
Forward index of general business conditions rises
  • general business conditions at 36.6 versus 20.2 last month
  • new orders 41.1 versus 32.5 last month
  • shipments 42.3 versus 32.6 last month.
  • Number of employees 27.0 versus 25.5 last month
  • average employee workweek 15.0 versus 15.3 last month
  • prices paid 72.9 versus 70.3 last month
  • prices received 58.9 versus 51.4 last month
  • capital expenditures 35.5 versus 37.8 last month
  • technology spending 23.4 versus 29.7 last month
  • unfilled orders 15.9 versus -1.8 last month
  • delivery times 18.7 versus 19.9 last month
  • Inventories 13.1 versus 7.2 last month.

Overall, a weaker than expected report with New Orders and Shipments weaker. However, the forward-looking components still are very strong

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